Maharashtra polls: Litmus test for Mahayuti parties in agrarian & tribal northern belt

NASHIK: Mahayuti faces a litmus test — given the loss it suffered in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year — to regain its grip in north Maharashtra. This largely agrarian and tribal region of the state has 47 seats in the assembly.
Earlier this year, Maha Vikas Aghadi won six of the eight Lok Sabha seats in the region, which had backed BJP and undivided Shiv Sena combine for over a decade. Mahayuti could retain just two seats, both in Jalgaon district, but lost all others in the remaining four districts.
A reflection of MVA gains can be seen in the assembly segment-wise performances of the two alliances in these LS polls. MVA was ahead in 29 assembly segments and Mahayuti in 18. In contrast, in the 2019 assembly polls, Mahayuti had won 33 seats in the region, and MVA 12. The remaining two seats were won by AIMIM.

Jalgaon's guardian minister Gulabrao Patil claimed Mahayuti will improve its performance in the region by winning at least 35 seats. "Voters in the region will not fall for the false narrative that MVA came up with during LS polls. Women voters will repose their trust in Mahayuti because of the Ladki Bahin scheme," he reasoned.
The ruling alliance will continue to face a stiff challenge from MVA in north Maharashtra as there is still a lot of discontent among voters from the Maratha community over the quota issue. Almost 80% of the 47 assembly seats in the region have sizeable Maratha community presence.
Mahayuti has also made amends over its policy for onion farmers. Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar publicly apologised to the farmers during a rally in Nashik in Aug this year.
Another major worry for Mahayuti is the discontent among tribal voters. There are over seven to eight seats with significant tribal vote presence. These voters leaned towards MVA during the LS polls. There is also resentment among this category of voters due to govt's plans to accord tribal status to the Dhangar community, that would impact their reservation share.
For MVA, the coalition's performance in the region will largely depend on NCP(SCP), which has the strongest presence here when compared to Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT).
Although Congress's two candidates in Dhule and Nandurbar won the LS polls, organisationally, the party is on a weak wicket in these five districts. Shiv Sena (UBT) strength in the region too has reduced after the party split vertically.
"As a part of MVA's gameplan, the bulk of the seats in North Maharashtra will go to NCP(SCP) since the party has considerable presence in Ahliyanagar, Nashik and Jalgaon. NCP(SCP) chief Sharad Pawar has a substantial following among the farmers in the region. Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) presence are not substantial in north Maharashtra," admitted a senior state Congress functionary.
The MVA will also face a challenge in garnering the votes of the minority community in the region if AIMIM decides to field candidates in at least 10-15 seats that have sizable presence of minority community voters. It will split the minority votes between MVA and AIMIM, which is likely to benefit Mahayuti. AIMIM has its two MLAs in the state from this region.
Also Read:Maharashtra Election Schedule 2024